Assad’s Prayer and the Fall of the Syrian Regime

type

status

date

slug

summary

A Rare Guest at Lingyin Temple

On September 21 of last year, Lingyin Temple in Hangzhou opened its grand gates to welcome a distinguished guest—Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The occasion coincided with the Asian Games in Hangzhou, where numerous Asian leaders gathered to show support for China. However, among these visiting heads of state, Assad’s presence stood out as particularly rare and significant.

Why? Since the outbreak of civil war in 2011, Syria had been torn apart, its economy in ruins, with a per capita GDP of only $400 per year—not per month, but per year. To put this into perspective, that is roughly one-thirtieth of China’s GDP. While China is not considered a wealthy country, a GDP per capita at one-thirtieth of China’s level is comparable to its economic situation during the Cultural Revolution. In such extreme poverty, even an official visit abroad would be a significant financial burden for Assad, especially given the long journey to China.

More critically, Assad had been under Western sanctions since 2011, with three of his five family members on international sanctions lists. He was severely restricted in his ability to travel, as a visit to Europe could lead to his immediate arrest and trial at the International Criminal Court. As a result, despite being a head of state, Assad had made only six international trips in the past decade—two of them to China. This made his appearances on the international stage exceptionally rare.

China’s Thoughtful Arrangements

China went to great lengths to ensure Assad’s visit. Aware of Syria’s economic difficulties, China dispatched a private jet to Damascus to bring him and his family to Hangzhou. In Hangzhou, Assad met with Chinese President Xi Jinping for a high-level summit, during which the two nations announced the establishment of a China-Syria strategic partnership—hailed as a historic milestone in their bilateral relations.

Following the summit, Assad and his family visited Lingyin Temple, where he prayed for peace and prosperity in Syria. The temple honored him with a grand gesture, opening its central gate—a privilege traditionally reserved for emperors. Reportedly, since 1949, the only other time this gate had been opened was during Deng Xiaoping’s visit. Even Emperor Qianlong, when he visited Lingyin Temple, had to enter through a side gate. The special treatment accorded to Assad was a testament to the high level of respect China extended to him.

One Year Later, the Regime Collapses

No one could have predicted that just one year later, Assad’s regime would collapse overnight. On December 8, 2023, Assad announced his resignation and fled Damascus with his family aboard an Il-76 transport aircraft. Opposition forces stormed the presidential palace, declaring, “Victory is ours! Freedom belongs to Syria!” The next day, Assad reappeared in Moscow, announcing his exile in Russia. With this, the Assad family’s 50-year rule over Syria came to an abrupt end.

The speed of the regime’s downfall was astonishing. It took only 12 days from the initial offensive by opposition forces to Assad’s ousting. On December 8, Damascus fell, government forces disbanded, and Assad fled the country in haste.

The residential palace of Mr. al-Assad on Sunday.Credit...Omar Haj Kadour/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Syria’s Bastille Moment

A key turning point in the uprising was the fall of Sednaya Prison, one of Syria’s most notorious detention facilities. The prison housed an estimated 10,000–20,000 political prisoners, including journalists, dissidents, and opposition activists. When opposition forces breached the prison, they immediately released all detainees. Some prisoners shouted in celebration, while others, minutes away from execution, were saved at the last moment. Human rights organizations had long labeled Sednaya a “hell on earth,” where between 20,000 and 30,000 political prisoners were reportedly executed since the start of the Arab Spring.

The fall of Sednaya Prison symbolized the collapse of Assad’s rule, much like the storming of the Bastille during the French Revolution. The government’s military collapse was equally dramatic—Syrian soldiers, earning only $30 a month, had little incentive to fight for the Assad family. On the morning of December 8, Assad was still urging national unity in a televised speech, but by evening, he had resigned and fled. Initially, rumors circulated that his plane had been shot down, but the next day, he resurfaced in Moscow, where Russia granted him political asylum. This marked the definitive end of the Assad dynasty.

The Assad Family’s Rule

Bashar al-Assad’s father, Hafez al-Assad, came to power in 1970 through a military coup, establishing the Assad family’s long-standing rule. Initially aspiring to become a doctor, Hafez had to abandon his medical ambitions due to financial constraints and instead pursued a military career, eventually rising through the ranks of the Syrian Air Force. With Soviet backing, he took control of Syria and led the Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party. Like many socialist regimes, his rule was marked by grand statues of himself across the country—statues that, following his regime’s downfall, were toppled by furious citizens, much like the fate of Saddam Hussein’s statues in Iraq.

As with many socialist states, Hafez sought to pass power to his son. His first choice for succession was his eldest son, but after the latter died in a car accident in 1994, the responsibility fell to his second son, Bashar. At the time, Bashar was studying medicine in the UK, but he was promptly recalled to Syria, abandoned his medical career, and was placed in a military academy to prepare for leadership.

Hafez al-Assad died in 2000, triggering an urgent constitutional amendment that lowered the minimum presidential age from 40 to 34—precisely Bashar’s age at the time—allowing him to assume power. Running as the sole candidate in the election, he won with 97% of the vote, a pattern that continued in subsequent elections, effectively securing him lifelong rule.

The Future of Syria

With the Assad regime gone, the future of Syria remains highly uncertain. The opposition force that overthrew Assad, the Sham Liberation Front, is led by Abu Mohammad al-Julani. Julani, who had prior ties to al-Qaeda, claims to have severed those connections, but concerns persist over whether his leadership could give rise to an even more extreme regime.

Syria remains a fractured state, with Kurdish-controlled areas, Turkish-backed factions, and U.S.-supported militias still in place. The country’s disunity means that even with Damascus under new control, stability and economic reconstruction remain distant prospects.

China, having invested significantly in Syria under Assad’s rule, now faces setbacks in its Middle East diplomacy. Many of its reconstruction projects and financial investments may be lost. When Assad left China in 2022, he was given full diplomatic honors, including a specially arranged flight back to Syria escorted by military jets from Pakistan, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. China had placed high hopes on his regime’s survival, seeing it as a key partner in the Belt and Road Initiative and an opportunity to expand its influence in the Middle East. However, with Assad’s ousting, these ambitions have largely evaporated.

Reflecting on Assad’s visit to Lingyin Temple, where he prayed for Syria’s peace and prosperity, one might wonder—was the temple’s blessing ineffective, or was it simply too powerful? Perhaps his prayer for the country’s peace and stability was answered, just not in the way he had envisioned.