China’s Diplomatic Is Reshaping the Global Consensus on Taiwan

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A Shifting Diplomatic Landscape

In 2023, during the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Beijing, 53 African nations signed a joint declaration expressing their support for China’s “national unification efforts.” The change in wording is significant—while previous statements emphasized peaceful resolutions to territorial disputes, an increasing number of countries are now endorsing a more hardline position, implicitly acknowledging China’s right to use force if necessary.

The Economist’s findings align with a report from the Australian-based Lowy Institute, which categorizes global positions on Taiwan into five groups:

Full Support for Taiwan (11 countries) – Primarily small island nations in the Caribbean and the Pacific, such as Palau and Nauru, with the Vatican also maintaining diplomatic ties with Taiwan (though not included in official statistics).

Recognition of Beijing but No Acknowledgment of Chinese Sovereignty Over Taiwan (40 countries) – This includes the U.S., Japan, Canada, and the UK, among others. These nations acknowledge Beijing as the legitimate government of China but do not accept its sovereignty over Taiwan. For instance, the U.S. Taiwan Relations Act explicitly states that the U.S. may intervene if Taiwan’s status is threatened by non-peaceful means.

Support for China’s Stance (142 countries, 74% of the world) – This group is further divided:

23 countries recognize Taiwan as “part of China” but do not specify that it belongs to the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Singapore is an example.

119 countries fully support Beijing’s “One China Principle.” Among them, 89 countries have explicitly backed China’s right to take “any necessary measures” to unify Taiwan, with no explicit demand for a peaceful resolution.

These figures challenge China’s long-standing narrative of a “universal international consensus” on Taiwan. While 38% of countries still do not fully accept Beijing’s sovereignty claim over Taiwan, the fact that 89 countries now support China’s right to use any means necessary represents a major breakthrough in Beijing’s diplomatic strategy.

China’s Three-Pronged Approach to Taiwan

China’s approach to Taiwan revolves around three key pillars: military, diplomacy, and economics.

Military: Deter the U.S. and Establish Battlefield Superiority

President Xi Jinping has ordered the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to complete preparations for a potential military operation against Taiwan by 2027. The goal is not necessarily to win a full-scale war against the U.S. but to ensure that the U.S. either refrains from intervening or calculates that intervention would be too costly.

China’s military buildup over the past decade reflects this strategy. The PLA Navy has rapidly expanded, adding aircraft carriers at an unprecedented pace, while the development of advanced fighter jets like the J-20 and missile systems has been aimed at securing a decisive advantage in a Taiwan conflict. A senior U.S. Pacific Fleet officer recently told The Economist that China’s approach is to establish a “limited conflict victory” model—where, as long as the U.S. does not intervene immediately, China could create an irreversible fait accompli.

Diplomacy: Reducing International Condemnation and Establishing Legitimacy

In 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea, the UN General Assembly passed a resolution condemning Russia with an overwhelming 141 votes in favor. China wants to avoid a similar level of diplomatic isolation if it moves on Taiwan.

Currently, 89 countries have expressed support for China’s right to use “any necessary means” to achieve unification. This number is just shy of the 100-vote threshold needed to block any UN resolution condemning China. If Beijing can push this number to 120, it would ensure that no global consensus could be reached against its actions, significantly undermining any Western-led efforts to diplomatically isolate China over Taiwan.

Economy: Reducing the Impact of Western Sanctions

After the Ukraine war, Russia was hit by severe Western sanctions, causing a significant decline in its GDP. A similar scenario would pose an even greater threat to China’s economy if it moved against Taiwan.

China currently enjoys a trade surplus of $612 billion with the G7 countries—all of whom belong to the 40-nation bloc that does not recognize Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan. In response, China has been shifting its trade strategy, deepening economic ties with the Global South to reduce dependence on Western markets.

At the same time, China is accelerating yuan internationalization to counteract potential financial sanctions. The proportion of China’s trade settlements conducted in yuan has surpassed 50%, and this trend is expected to continue. If China can further decrease its reliance on the U.S. dollar for international transactions, it would mitigate the impact of any financial restrictions imposed by the U.S. and its allies.

The Uncertain Road Ahead

With China steadily advancing its military, diplomatic, and economic preparations, the balance of power in the Taiwan Strait is shifting.

The key question now is: How will the U.S. and Taiwan respond?

Can Washington strengthen its alliances to prevent more countries from aligning with China? Can Taiwan leverage diplomatic strategies to break its growing isolation? Will Japan, Australia, and European nations adopt a more explicit stance on Taiwan’s future?

There are no definitive answers yet. However, what is certain is that Taiwan has become one of the central geopolitical flashpoints of the 21st century. And as China continues its unprecedented efforts to reshape global perceptions, the next few years will be decisive in determining the fate of Taiwan—and the broader Indo-Pacific region.